Back in 2008, during the global financial meltdown, an old boss of mine sat me down and said something that’s stuck with me ever since: “Boom and bust is inevitable.” He wasn’t just talking about the economy; he was talking about human nature. We’re wired to repeat our mistakes, to chase the highs of a boom and ignore the warning signs of an impending bust. And here we are, in 2025, proving him right all over again.
Ireland’s housing market is once again flirting with disaster. The government is dusting off its old playbook, talking about giving tax breaks to builders as if it’s some magical fix for the housing crisis. But let me tell you, this isn’t innovation – it’s déjà vu. These are the same tax breaks that fuelled the Celtic Tiger’s property bubble, which burst spectacularly and took the Irish economy down with it in 2008. Have we learned nothing?
The Ghosts of the Celtic Tiger
Let’s rewind to the early 2000s. Ireland was riding high on the Celtic Tiger wave – foreign investment was pouring in, jobs were plentiful, and property prices were skyrocketing. Builders couldn’t lay bricks fast enough to keep up with demand. The Government, eager to keep the party going, rolled out tax incentives for developers and property investors. On paper, it looked like a win-win: more houses, more jobs, more economic growth.
But beneath the surface, a dangerous cycle was brewing. Those tax breaks didn’t just encourage responsible development; they fueled speculative buying and over-construction. People started buying properties off-plan – snapping up homes before a single brick was laid- because they believed prices would only go up. Banks handed out mortgages like candy at Halloween, often with little regard for whether borrowers could actually afford them. It was a house of cards built on cheap credit and blind optimism.
When the global financial crisis hit in 2008, it all came crashing Boom, Bust, and the Lessons We Refuse to Learn. Property values plummeted by over 50%, leaving homeowners trapped in negative equity and developers drowning in debt. The construction industry collapsed almost overnight, unemployment soared, and Ireland found itself in one of its darkest economic periods since independence.
Back to the Future
Fast-forward to today, and it feels like we’re watching a rerun of a bad movie. The government is once again dangling tax breaks in front of builders as a way to tackle the housing crisis. The logic seems simple: incentivise construction, increase supply, and bring down prices. But here’s the thing—this isn’t our first rodeo. We know how this story ends because we’ve lived it before.
Tax breaks might boost construction in the short term, but they also create a feeding frenzy among speculators and developers who are more interested in flipping properties for profit than solving the housing crisis. And let’s not forget what happens when you flood the market with easy credit and speculative investments: prices spiral out of control until the bubble inevitably bursts.
What’s worse is that we’re already seeing echoes of pre-2008 behaviour. Off-plan buying is creeping back into vogue as people scramble to get on the property ladder before prices climb even higher. It’s like watching someone stick their hand back into a fire after getting burned- they know it’s going to hurt, but they can’t help themselves.
Builders Over Buyers
The real kicker here is that these tax breaks don’t actually solve the root problems of Ireland’s housing crisis. They’re designed to benefit builders and developers, not ordinary people trying to buy a home. Sure, more houses might get built – but will they be affordable? Will they go to first-time buyers or be snapped up by investors looking to make a quick buck? History suggests it’ll be the latter.
Meanwhile, renters are left out in the cold as rents continue to soar, pushing more people into precarious living situations or forcing them to leave Ireland altogether. The Government talks a big game about wanting to make housing accessible for everyone, but their actions tell a different story: profits for builders take precedence over homes for families.
The PR Spin – and Why It Won’t Work
From a PR perspective, this move might seem like an easy win for politicians desperate to show they’re doing something – anything – about housing. They’ll frame it as “supporting economic growth” or “encouraging development,” but let’s call it what it really is: kicking the can down the road while hoping no one remembers 2008.
But here’s where they’re miscalculating: people *do* remember. They remember ghost estates rotting on the outskirts of towns after the crash. They remember losing their jobs when construction dried up overnight. They remember being stuck in homes worth half what they paid for them. And they won’t fall for the same empty promises twice – or at least I hope not.
Suppose I were advising this government (and thank God I’m not). In that case, I’d tell them to scrap these tax breaks and focus on policies that actually help people: invest in social housing, cap rents, regulate speculative buying. Yes, it’s harder work than handing out incentives to builders—but it’s also smarter and more sustainable in the long run.
Boom Without Bust?
Look, I’m not naïve enough to think we can eliminate boom-and-bust cycles entirely – that old boss of mine was right about their inevitability. But we can at least try to mitigate their impact by learning from our mistakes instead of repeating them.
The problem is that politicians have short memories – and even shorter attention spans when it comes to anything beyond winning the next election. Tax breaks for builders might look good on paper today, but tomorrow they’ll be another chapter in Ireland’s long history of economic self-sabotage.
So here’s my plea: let’s stop pretending we don’t know how this ends. Let’s stop making decisions based on what’s expedient instead of what’s right. And for God’s sake, let’s stop giving builders a free pass while ordinary people are left holding the bag when everything falls apart again.
Because if we don’t? Well, don’t say I didn’t warn you when we’re all standing knee-deep in another bust wondering how we got here – again.
